{"id":48077,"date":"2025-04-30T11:01:18","date_gmt":"2025-04-30T17:01:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/informante.mx\/?p=48077"},"modified":"2025-04-30T11:01:24","modified_gmt":"2025-04-30T17:01:24","slug":"mexico-se-salva-de-panzazo-de-la-recesion-cuanto-crecio-el-pib-en-el-primer-trimestre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/informante.mx\/?p=48077","title":{"rendered":"M\u00e9xico se salva \u2018de panzazo\u2019 de la recesi\u00f3n: \u00bfCu\u00e1nto creci\u00f3 el PIB en el primer trimestre?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

De acuerdo con la estimaci\u00f3n oportuna del Inegi, el avance de la econom\u00eda de M\u00e9xico en el primer trimestre de este a\u00f1o estuvo apoyado en las actividades primarias.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Redacci\u00f3n Informante<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00bfLa alerta encendida por Citi fue exagerada?\u00a0La econom\u00eda de M\u00e9xico creci\u00f3 0.2 por ciento<\/strong>\u00a0en el primer trimestre de 2025, seg\u00fan la estimaci\u00f3n oportuna del PIB publicada este mi\u00e9rcoles 30 de abril.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El PIB de M\u00e9xico<\/strong> venci\u00f3 por \u2018un pelito de rana calva\u2019 los pron\u00f3sticos de los analistas consultados por Bloomberg<\/em>, que estimaban un crecimiento de apenas 0.1 por ciento.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A reserva de confirmar el dato en mayo, el c\u00e1lculo del Inegi pondr\u00eda fuera a\u00a0la econom\u00eda de M\u00e9xico de una recesi\u00f3n t\u00e9cnica… por ahora.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Y es que Citi hab\u00eda estimado una contracci\u00f3n de 0.4 por ciento para el PIB de M\u00e9xico <\/strong>entre enero y marzo de este a\u00f1o, por lo que la econom\u00eda mexicana iba a ligar dos trimestres consecutivos a la baja, explic\u00f3 Julio C\u00e9sar Ruiz, economista en jefe para M\u00e9xico de Citi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDetr\u00e1s de estos supuestos est\u00e1 ladesaceleraci\u00f3n de la econom\u00eda de Estados Unidos. Esperamos 1.1 por ciento de crecimiento y el consenso lo prev\u00e9 en 1.7 por ciento. El segundo factor que afecta el crecimiento previsto de 0.2 por ciento del PIB en M\u00e9xico es la incertidumbre, la cual est\u00e1 afectando la inversi\u00f3n\u201d, coment\u00f3 en rueda de prensa el 23 de abril.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Este es el crecimiento de la econom\u00eda de M\u00e9xico a tasa trimestral desde 2022. (Inegi)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Econom\u00eda de M\u00e9xico \u2018libra\u2019 recesi\u00f3n: \u00bfQu\u00e9 actividades crecieron m\u00e1s?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

El Inegi report\u00f3 que\u00a0las actividades relacionadas con el campo\u00a0tuvieron un \u2018salto\u2019 de 8.1 por ciento, su mayor avance desde 2011, en comparaci\u00f3n con el \u00faltimo trimestre de 2024. E<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Para las actividades industriales<\/strong>, el Instituto estima que hubo una contracci\u00f3n de 0.3 por ciento, con lo que se observan dos trimestres a la baja, mientras que el sector de los servicios <\/strong>(que representa 63 por ciento del PIB) no registr\u00f3 variaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A tasa anual, es decir, al comparar el primer trimestre de 2025 con el de 2024, la econom\u00eda de M\u00e9xico avanz\u00f3 0.6 por ciento, public\u00f3 el Inegi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEl riesgo de recesi\u00f3n no ha desaparecido, las actividades econ\u00f3micas importantes muestran debilidad, como la industria y servicios<\/strong>, as\u00ed mismo, el deterioro del mercado laboral observado desde 2024 podr\u00eda agudizarse m\u00e1s debido al entorno de incertidumbre\u201d agreg\u00f3 Gabriela Siller directora de an\u00e1lisis de Banco BASE.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00bfQu\u00e9 \u2018salv\u00f3\u2019 al PIB de M\u00e9xico de la recesi\u00f3n t\u00e9cnica?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Desde el regreso de\u00a0Donald Trump, quien \u2018relaj\u00f3\u2019 sus aranceles de 25 por ciento a los autos, el pron\u00f3stico de los analistas es que la econom\u00eda de M\u00e9xico se desacelerar\u00e1 por cuarto a\u00f1o al hilo por\u00a0la pol\u00edtica de aranceles de EU<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No obstante, esas preocupaciones contribuyeron a impulsar los resultados del primer trimestre, gracias a la solidez de\u00a0las exportaciones manufactureras, y\u00a0los importadores estadounidenses adelantaron pedidos<\/strong>\u00a0para evitar tarifas m\u00e1s caras sobre los productos mexicanos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cParece que el primer trimestre se salv\u00f3 gracias a la concentraci\u00f3n anticipada de la producci\u00f3n y las exportaciones<\/strong> ante un cambio en los aranceles de importaci\u00f3n de Estados Unidos\u201d, declar\u00f3 Alberto Ramos, economista jefe para Am\u00e9rica Latina de Goldman Sachs Group, antes de la publicaci\u00f3n del informe.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Capitalinos compran su despensa en el Mercado de Coyoac\u00e1n. El campo ‘salv\u00f3’ a la econom\u00eda de M\u00e9xico en el primer trimestre. (Mayolo Lopez Gutierrez\/Bloomberg)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Aun as\u00ed, el riesgo de aranceles sobre las exportaciones a Estados Unidos, por mucho el principal socio comercial de M\u00e9xico, sigue vigente, y las amenazas de Trump de imponer aranceles \u201crec\u00edprocos\u201d sobre m\u00e1s productos siguen siendo una posibilidad muy real.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Actualmente, Trump aplica a M\u00e9xico aranceles a productos no cubiertos por el T-MEC, as\u00ed como\u00a0aranceles al acero, el aluminio\u00a0y\u00a0las partes de autom\u00f3viles terminados\u00a0que no se fabrican en Estados Unidos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La presidenta Claudia Sheinbaum ha estado intentando reducir los aranceles mediante llamadas telef\u00f3nicas directas con Trump, ya que funcionarios mexicanos tambi\u00e9n viajan a Washington semanalmente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Con informaci\u00f3n de Felipe Gazc\u00f3n, Bloomberg y Mario Luna<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Toda la informaci\u00f3n que necesitas saber la encuentras en nuestras <\/i>redes sociales y canal de <\/em><\/strong><\/strong>Telegram<\/em><\/strong><\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

!\u00danete!<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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